Weakening rupee puts India interest rate cuts in doubt
Currency’s decline and its implications for inflation add to doubts about health of world’s fastest-growing major economy
International - Financial Times - Credit Squeeze
The China commodities supercycle is over. Will there be another?
Chinese demand for steel and iron ore has finally peaked. The industry hopes the energy transition will spark a new boom, but it will be shaped by geopolitical competition
Milei extends bet on Argentina’s unorthodox currency policy
Libertarian leader slows peso’s devaluation in attempt to stamp out inflation
Goldman’s Solomon says US economy in a ‘fragile place’
Wall Street bank’s chief expects deregulation under Trump to spur business investment but urges caution
EU threatens to curb access for makers of Chinese medical devices
Report finds Beijing is discriminating against bloc’s manufacturers in same field
On hawks, doves and pigeons
Can categorising rate-setters help us to predict the future of the economy?
FirstFT: ‘Breakthrough’ raises hopes for Gaza ceasefire deal
Also in today’s newsletter, special counsel Jack Smith issues report on election interference, and Amazon plans AI ‘brain’ for Alexa
Mexico pledges to shrink trade deficit with China in nod to Trump
President Claudia Sheinbaum unveils plan to boost domestic manufacturing and cut imports
The European (non?) discount
Plus CPI jitters, and measuring liquidity
US LNG industry poised to expand as Trump vows to lift restrictions
S&P finds ramp-up of exports could add $1.3tn to American economy in next five years with capacity expected to double
Reversal of fortunes: Europe’s thriving south and stagnant north
With Germany’s economy stalling, tentative growth in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain is some good news for the Eurozone. Will it last?
Indian IT outsourcers look to Trump bump to revive fortunes
After years of anaemic growth in largest market, sector expects promised deregulation to encourage tech spending
Pain is coming for emerging markets from a Trump trade war
Investors are still not pricing in enough risks from fallout of US-China tensions
US imposes export controls on chips for AI to counter China
American semiconductor industry warns move will aid competitors while EU has also protested against the new rules
What’s a “term premium”?
Adventures in kitchen-sink bond market indicators
Aircraft shortages will drag on for years, predict leasing bosses
Some executives forecast it will take ‘until the end of the decade’ before supply chain issues are worked out
Trump’s trade coercion will harm the US and its allies
Greenland gambit suggests the country is now a threat to as much as a guarantor of security
FirstFT: Dollar hits 2-year high as interest rate assumptions change
Also in today’s newsletter, China’s trade surplus reached a new record and the reinvention of El Salvador
ECB’s chief economist warns of too-low inflation if rates stay high
Philip Lane points to dangers of borrowing costs that remain ‘too high for too long’
China’s trade surplus hits annual record of almost $1tn
Rise in exports expected to increase tensions with US and other trade partners
Global Economy
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